When the College Football Playoff selection committee released its updated rankings on , the shockwave hit Tuscaloosa before sunrise. The Alabama Crimson Tide, once a near-lock for a top-four seed, tumbled six spots to No. 10 after a gut-wrenching 23-21 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It wasn’t just a loss — it was a seismic shift in the playoff race. Alabama’s chances of a first-round bye? Gone. Their path to the championship? Now a minefield.
How a Two-Point Defeat Changed Everything
Just five days earlier, on , Alabama sat at No. 4 with an 8-1 record and a 96% projected chance of making the 12-team playoff, according to ESPN’s analytics. Oklahoma? A distant No. 11 at 7-2, with a 32% chance. That night in Tuscaloosa, everything flipped. The Sooners, led by a gutsy fourth-quarter drive capped by quarterback Max Duggan’s 12-yard scramble for the go-ahead touchdown, held off a last-ditch Alabama drive that ended at the Oklahoma 18-yard line with 12 seconds left. The final whistle didn’t just end the game — it ended Alabama’s dream of a top-four seed.
Now, the Crimson Tide sit at No. 10 with an 8-2 record, and their first-round opponent is clear: the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The Ducks, at No. 7, are riding a five-game winning streak and boast the nation’s 11th-best offense. Alabama’s defense — once considered elite — has allowed 20+ points in three of its last four games. The numbers don’t lie: the Tide’s strength of schedule has taken a hit, and their only win over a ranked team since September was a narrow 24-21 win over Tennessee.
The New Playoff Landscape
The committee’s updated rankings reveal a conference war. The SEC still dominates: Texas A&M (8-0) holds No. 3, Georgia (7-1) climbed to No. 4, and Ole Miss (8-1) surged to No. 6. But the Big 12 is catching up fast. Oklahoma’s win vaulted them to No. 8, and with Texas Tech (8-1) at No. 5 and Texas (7-3) at No. 17, the conference has four teams ranked in the top 17. Meanwhile, Ohio State (9-0) and Indiana (9-0) remain undefeated and atop the heap, with Texas A&M as the only other unbeaten team in the top five.
The projected first-round matchups are brutal. No. 12 Tulane travels to No. 5 Texas Tech. No. 11 Miami visits No. 6 Ole Miss. And now, No. 10 Alabama heads west to face No. 7 Oregon — a team that’s outscored opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game this season. Alabama’s offense, which averaged 38.6 points per game in its first eight wins, has sputtered in its last two, scoring just 21 and 23 points.
Still Alive — But Barely
Here’s the thing: Alabama still controls its destiny. That’s not a platitude — it’s the cold truth. Win out, and they’re in the SEC Championship Game Atlanta on December 6. Beat Auburn, and they’ll likely win the SEC West. But here’s the catch: even a 10-2 record with a conference title might not be enough if other teams keep winning. Notre Dame (6-2) sits at No. 9 with a tougher schedule than Alabama’s remaining slate. And Oklahoma (8-2) now has a stronger resume than the Tide.
Coach Kalen DeBoer didn’t mince words after the loss. “We had one job,” he said. “We didn’t do it. Now we have two left.” His team’s remaining schedule includes a home game against Eastern Illinois on November 22 — a win they’re expected to get — and then the Iron Bowl Auburn on November 29. That’s the real test. Auburn, ranked No. 18, is playing with house money. They’ve won three straight, including a statement win over LSU. If Alabama loses there, their playoff hopes are dead.
Why This Matters Beyond Tuscaloosa
This isn’t just about Alabama. It’s about the new reality of the 12-team playoff. In the old four-team format, one loss could be fatal. Now, it’s just a speed bump — unless you’re Alabama, whose resume was built on reputation more than dominance this season. The committee is rewarding consistency, not pedigree. Oklahoma’s win over Alabama was more than an upset — it was a statement that the old guard doesn’t get automatic deference anymore.
For fans, it’s a brutal reminder: in college football, nothing is guaranteed. One missed field goal. One dropped pass. One too many penalties on third down. And the dream turns to dust. Alabama’s players know it. The fans in the stands know it. Even the committee knows it — their rankings don’t lie.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Alabama still make the College Football Playoff?
Yes — but only if they win their final two games: Eastern Illinois on November 22 and Auburn on November 29. Even then, they’ll need help. If Oklahoma beats Kansas State and Texas beats Texas Tech, Alabama’s 10-2 record might not be enough to crack the top eight. A win over Auburn would likely force a tiebreaker scenario with Notre Dame or Oklahoma.
Why did Alabama drop so far despite only having two losses?
The committee values strength of schedule and quality wins more than win-loss records alone. Alabama’s only win over a top-10 team this season was against Georgia in Week 3. Since then, their wins came against unranked or mid-tier opponents. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s win over Alabama — combined with their earlier upset of Texas — gave them a signature win that Alabama lacks. The committee saw Oklahoma’s resume as stronger.
Who benefits the most from Alabama’s loss?
Oklahoma is the biggest beneficiary, jumping to No. 8 and now holding a stronger resume than Alabama. Notre Dame also gains breathing room at No. 9, while Oregon moves into the coveted No. 7 seed and avoids a potential top-four matchup in the quarterfinals. The SEC’s dominance is still intact, but the Big 12’s credibility has surged.
What’s the significance of the 12-team playoff format here?
The 12-team format means even teams with two losses can make it — but only if they’re among the top 10. Alabama is now on the bubble. If they lose to Auburn, they’ll likely be the first team out. The format gives more teams a shot, but it also makes every game in November feel like a playoff game. There’s no room for error anymore.
How does this affect the SEC’s chances of multiple playoff teams?
The SEC still has four teams in the top 10: Texas A&M (No. 3), Georgia (No. 4), Ole Miss (No. 6), and Alabama (No. 10). But with Alabama’s fall, the conference’s odds of placing three teams in the playoff have dropped from 70% to under 50%. It now depends on whether Georgia or Ole Miss can win the SEC Championship and whether Texas A&M stays undefeated.
What’s next for Alabama’s season?
Alabama’s path is simple: win out. They play Eastern Illinois on November 22, then the Iron Bowl against Auburn on November 29. A win in both games sets up an SEC Championship showdown with Georgia or Texas A&M on December 6 in Atlanta. If they win that, they’ll likely be the last team in. If they lose either game, their season ends at Autzen Stadium on December 20.